Analysts Flood Into SpaceX After $14.6B Quarter, Targeting $500

The most striking figure from SpaceX’s latest earnings report is a revenue total of $14.6 billion for the third quarter of 2026. This number, reported after the market closed on October 20, represented a 161 percent increase compared to the same period last year and easily surpassed analyst expectations that had centered near $12.7 billion. In response, shares saw significant gains during extended trading hours and into the premarket session on October 21.

The company’s financial health appeared robust, as it shifted from a loss in the prior year to a net profit of $4.4 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for the period reached $8.8 billion. A major driver of this performance was the Super Intelligence (AI) division, which generated approximately $7.6 billion in revenue. This unit has become the company's largest revenue contributor, growing by nearly 830 percent year-over-year.

The connectivity side of the business also posted strong numbers, generating $5.2 billion. This growth was fueled by subscriber gains, with the Starlink consumer base expanding to 13.6 million. Beyond current operations, the company outlined a plan to spend between $35 billion and $40 billion during the fourth quarter, specifically targeting AI compute infrastructure projects at sites in Memphis and Southaven.

During the earnings call on October 20, CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen provided guidance for the first quarter of 2027 that far exceeded current projections. They forecasted revenue between $33 billion and $37 billion, a sharp contrast to the approximately $22 billion analysts had previously modeled. Management also discussed plans to reach 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end, with a pathway to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027.

Musk characterized the demand from hyperscalers and other customers as relentless, noting that current compute pricing supports payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months. The call also touched on Starship's recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, alongside the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla. These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases.

In the wake of the report, financial institutions quickly revised their assessments. JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight), while Barclays moved to $300 from $254 (Overweight). Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy), and UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy).

Further adjustments came from TD Cowen, which raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy). Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target. Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.

Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets. The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.